The crypto market is showing significant volatility amid macroeconomic turmoil. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $80,314, although earlier in the day its price fell to $76,606. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.570 trillion, of which $754.21 billion is accounted for by the market excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH).
The dominance of bitcoin remains high at 61,84%, which indicates its leading role in the market.
The Fear and Greed Index, which reflects investor sentiment, is at 24, indicating a zone of "fear" and cautiousness among market participants.
Macroeconomic context
The crypto market is influenced by the US stock market, which is undergoing a correction. The S&P 500 index has corrected 10% from its highs, while bitcoin has lost 30% over the same period.
Yesterday's opening of the US markets was accompanied by a drop: most stocks lost between 5% and 6%, with Tesla shares leading the decline, falling by 15%.
Tesla has lost more than 50% since its peak, which is attributed to the Trump administration's economic policies, including the introduction of new duties that triggered "mirror" duties from other countries, affecting the American auto industry.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin
Bitcoin recently tested the liquidity zone: the price dropped to $76,600, below the local low of $78,250, after which it recovered to $80,314. Currently, the market looks unstable.
If the U.S. stock market continues to fall, in particular if the S&P 500 reaches 5,500, bitcoin could drop to the $73,000 zone.
The short-term target is $85,000: in case of market weakness, liquidity may be withdrawn at $84,100 with a further drop to $73,000, and if buyers appear, it may consolidate above $85,000 with a potential move to $90,700.
To confirm the long-term bullish trend, bitcoin needs not only to reach $95,000 but also to consolidate above this level.
Forecast and expectations
Historically, a stock market correction that reaches 10% often signals the near end of a downward movement, although in times of crisis, the drop can reach 30%.
In response to the current situation, it is expected that U.S. policymakers may resort to lowering rates and injecting liquidity into the market, which will have a positive impact on stock indices and, through correlation, on the crypto market. At the moment, a temporary rise (upward correction) in the stock market is likely, which could support cryptocurrency prices, including bitcoin.
As of March 11, 2025, the crypto market is in a zone of uncertainty due to a strong correlation with the US stock market.
Bitcoin is trading at $80,314 with the potential to rise to $85,000 and fall to $73,000 depending on the macroeconomic situation.
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The Fear and Greed Index at 24 reflects investor caution, and bitcoin's dominance at 61,84% underscores its key role.
In the short term, the market may receive support from a corrective growth in equity markets, but investors should remain vigilant to global economic changes.
